TRUTH??????????POLLS DON'T GO THERE!!!!!!!!!!

Hi,


Economics covers many subjects as we learned in earlier blogs and statistics is high on the list. Statistics are a current favorite because you can provide SUPPOSITION for anything and make it look like PROOF.

POLLS fall into the statistics category and POLITICAL POLLS are the most suppositional of all but presented as PROOF of what will happen in an upcoming election. The polls following an election have more of a semblance of reality.

This would not be a problem if EVERYONE realized that we're talking about EDUCATED GUESSES. However, the influence that polls engender is based on our very human feelings of INDECISION because we don't have all the FACTS. Not having ALL THE FACTS, we feel that OTHERS PROBABLY KNOW MORE and so we should realign OUR thinking to agree with THEIR thinking and VOTE THE POPULAR TREND which is CREATED BY THE POLLSTERS.

Of course, the MEDIA AND POLLSTERS know this so that the RESULT OF THE POLLS you are given (AND THEY VARY WIDELY plus they no longer tell whose poll it is) are the ones that most suit the POLITICAL TEMPERAMENT OF A GIVEN SOURCE (the TV station, the newspaper, the magazine, the book, whatever).

You can go on the Internet and look up the polls and find the poll you like. Do you want one NOT FAVORING Congress or the President? IT'S THERE!!!!!!!!!!! Do you want one FAVORING the Congress or the President? IT'S THERE!!!!!!!!!! All the numbers, statistics and even in the case of some large pollsters the exact processes used. Isn't modern ECONOMICS wonderful!!!!!!!!!!!

Only PROBLEM is the polls are SUPPOSED to be FACTUAL, aren't they????????????

We've learned, however, in previous blogs that FACTS can't be based on SUPPOSITION. Facts are hard, cold, reliable, TRUE evidence of the REAL WORLD. POLLS AND STATISTICS DON'T GO THERE!!!!!!!!!

Just as in all statistics the authors of polls give you evidence of how FAIR AND IMPARTIAL their poll is and I am sure many of the pollsters MEAN WELL (remember that's not my highest compliment) but FACTS ARE FACTS and POLLS are STATISTICS.

In recent years The Associated Press and GFK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications forged a partnership to become a leader in PUBLIC OPINION and marketing research. Supposedly the Associated Press "delivers fast unbiased news...and is the largest, most trusted source of independent news and information". A NOBLE and just worthy calling but they expend 30 or 40 pages of information and questions on their polls on the internet to PROVE how fair and unbiased their polls are set up. You can find every bit of the this information gathered on a site called "How the Poll was Conducted". Exemplary conduct!!!!!!!!!! RIGHT??????????????


You know what?????????? FACTS do not often need 30 to 40 pages of information and JUSTIFICATION so there must be a problem of belief in the documents that are in this case called the polls!!!!!!!

What to believe????????How to decide??????????TRUST YOUR INSTINCTS!!!!!!!!!!! NINE OUT OF TEN TIMES your instincts are CORRECT. That's BETTER than most statistics or polls!!!!!!

What are some of the PITFALLS of polls that most Pollsters forget to include: the BIAS of the person choosing the participants (even random phone numbers can be less than random); the VERICITY of the folks polled (Did you know that people will LIE when they don't trust the questioner?????); results are WEIGHTED (which means ADJUSTED OR SKEWED) to reflect the population's makeup (THIS COMES UNDER BIAS AS WELL); only a SMALL SELECTION (about 1000) of adults (18 or older) in the United States are usually polled (they claim their results never vary by more than +or-4.2% points in the UPS poll compared to population); and they do admit to potential errors like wording and order of questions (YOU THINK??????????)

This process also allows the current research teams that do the polls to ask a lot of NOSY QUESTIONS that aren't really pertinent to a particular issue that the interviewee feels obligated to answer of LIE about that will be used in other IFFY research statistics.

IN OTHER WORDS, the pollsters say:"LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, WE ARE ANNOUNCING THIS POLL FOR THE NOVEMBER 2 ELECTION BASED ON THE BEST ___'QUESTIMATE' THAT WE HOPE WILL INFLUENCE YOU TO VOTE THE WAY WE'D LIKE"!!!!!!!!!

There are a lot of jobs, out there filled by earnest, well meaning people doing a job for statisticians, not really aware of where the information is intended to be used and do not intend to misinform the public. Unfortunately, they don't make the rules.

Personally, it's always good if the polls GO AGAINST your candidate because it means that the folks who approve of that candidate will stir their stumps and get out to vote at the REAL POLLS WHERE PEOPLE VOTE AND MAKE REAL FACTS AVAILABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Some random facts that question the impartiality of the poll and prove that there is a distinct make up of the people involved: a PARTICULAR POLL shows that there were 48% above $50,000. and 47% below $50,000.;white participants were 76% and black, 10%; other nationalities, 12%; Christians, 88%, Not Christian, 12% DOES THIS NOT MAKE YOU IN AWE OF THE POLLSTERS???????????How difficult must it be to "RANDOMLY" SELECT THOSE PERFECT PERCENTAGES that fit the national statistical average??????????

You're correct. It is impossible to form those perfect percentages which is why the Pollsters adjust the folks answering the polling to suit the proper ratio based on their previous statistical evidence in those areas. I wonder if out of the thousand people polled, they actually wind up with a hundred acceptable people???????????? IF THAT'S NOT A MIND BOGGLING RATIO OF A SCREWY FACSIMILE OF FACTS then you should go into the field of ELECTION POLL MAKING. It's a fit.

VOTE NOVEMBER for the candidate of YOUR CHOICE because your choice is every bit as good if not BETTER THAN the Pollsters choices or the media choices. They obviously have no more FACTS than you do and maybe EVEN LESS by the time they get done screwing around with whatever real information that was gathered.


Cheers, Connie