9/25/10

MAGIC MARKERS

Hi,


Someone asked recently when the housing crisis is likely to be over. Despite government public relations reports, the answer is not good. There is no magic wand that will cure the sickness that ails housing and the constant fiddling by politicians just constitutes a longer wait to find out what true house pricing constitutes.


Because that's the real key to all this. The MAGIC MARKERS used by mortgage companies, bankers and the government set prices at unrealistic rates. How to ascertain this? Well, let's step back in time just 50 years. That seem like a long time to you? It's not when you consider that prices rose far more slowly in the years preceding the 1960 time frame.


In 1960 the average then luxury home in a good Florida neighborhood (a 3-BR, 2 bath home of 2000 square feet) sold for $12,500. That's right: twelve thousand, five hundred dollars. That same home today EVEN AFTER THE RECENT REDUCTION in home prices in the same neighborhood (which is now an OLD nice neighborhood) sells for around $500,000. This price change is similar even for lesser homes.


Not being a mathematician or statistician, even so it is clear that an increase of $9750. a year during good and bad times for 50 years is rather strange but that's exactly what that home would have had to experience to reach $500,000.


SO, WHAT IS REAL VALUE????????? How much is that home really worth? It was obviously built in 1960 to sell at $12,500. Did the owners provide almost $10,000. of REAL HOME IMPROVEMENTS over the 50 years???????? It's doubtful. What caused the house to become more valuable than it was originally?


If you bought a $3,000. car in 1960 and used it sparingly for 50 years with no other owners, it's not going to be worth anything even in pristine condition WHEN YOU TRY TO SELL IT.


Seem strange that a house probably used by at least 10 or more owners in 50 years would BECOME MUCH MORE VALUABLE. Yes, land cost do rise as less land is less available but neighborhoods change so that some become less desirable and should drive house prices down. None seem likely to reach original cost. IS THERE A HOUSE at or near the same value as 50 years ago???????? It would be very difficult to find.


How does a house appreciate beyond real value? Regular repairs wrongly seen as Home IMPROVEMENT are added to the selling price.


CARS constantly need repair or fuel and guess what? CARS DEPRECIATE (lose value-a lot of it). You can't add those costs to the sale price of the car or a home.


Added to the home's selling price is the profit many owners AND SPECULATORS feel they deserve JUST BECAUSE they were smart enough to buy the home.


Then there are those real home improvement loans (additions to square footage) that Banks like to add to a mortgage so that the home will appreciate in value. Those improvements deserve to be figured that into the seller's price. However, many times the money is spent on repairs and not true home improvements.


Taxes have have a role in increasing home prices beyond real value. When tax appraisers saw houses selling for more than the original cost, they scratched their heads and said, 'we should be able to tap into this extra money' and THEY DID. Houses in the past were not treated like the stock market but were taxed on the basis of what they originally cost plus genuine home improvements producing a more realistic home value than in the past 20 years.

They decided to assess a home on the basis of surrounding home sales or just estimate values on a similar basis. NOT FAIR???????? RIGHT!!!!!!!!!! If you choose to live in your home for a long time and have never sold it, you are taxed on the basis of someone else's profit taking. That's how they build fancy courthouses. Those tax values soon became the accepted lowest value of homes in an area. Not necessarily the selling price but the taxable price. AGAIN WE HAVE A MAGIC MARKER.


WHAT DOES ALL THIS MUMBO JUMBO really mean??????????It means, my friend, that the original building cost (less wear and tear if any) and actual home improvement is the real value of your home and the remainder of the selling price or value is based on BLUE SKY. That's what nefarious profit used to be called. Not even pools often qualify as major improvements, no matter how it's improved your life!!!!!!!!!


THERE JUST IS NO OTHER REAL PRICE TO BE FOUND!!!!!!!!!! Your current home value has been based on all that BLUE SKY PROFIT made by former owners; and your TAXES are based on the BLUE SKY PROFIT made by OWNERS of other homes around you. They learned this concept from the stock market and used it because the profit in homes was deemed long-term equity value.


What does it mean when they talk about the revitalization of the home market??????????Mostly, it's about more MAGIC MARKERS. Here's the real view of a home in the last 50 years.


It was seen as a "GREAT, LONG-TERM BUILDUP IN EQUITY VALUE". In other words you have been PLAYING THE STOCK MARKET OF HOME VALUE!!!!!!!!!!! Unfortunately, you were not advised that this was a RISK situation just like the stock market. You were led to believe that your home would continue to accrue equity value and you would not have to worry about loss. Thus many folks lost retirement income that probably should have gone into gold.


PLEASE, IN THE FUTURE remember the lessons learned from the downturns in our economy.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS "PROFIT WITHOUT RISK"!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It usually affects the high end of profit the most. However, this time because HOME IMPROVEMENT LOANS were given to home owners on their lower end mortgages, they also took heavy hits with not only on OVERBLOWN mortgages but loans added to those contracts that kept their pay off low.


What will happen to home values?????????? I wish I could answer that one. There's no telling what MAGIC MARKER is up some one's sleeve to convince folks that all is well. The demand for housing has decreased because those who understood what was entailed in home profit no longer see the lure of long-term growth in equity value. New building is down and as a result we have a declining job market.



WE SIMPLY HAVE TO BEGIN ONCE MORE TO SEE A HOME AS A SHELTER AND BE DAMNED GLAD OF HAVING IT!!!!!!!!!!!



The statisticians say that home values have decreased 30% (considering how far off real value they have become--that is a conservative amount); that some $6 trillion home equity value has gone back into that BLUE SKY (that's an imaginary land by the way--MORE MARKERS); HOUSEHOLD wealth has decreased by about $170 billion, according to Goldman Sachs and a million or so homes are not being built annually which has removed 5 million jobs and lowered consumption, according to Mortimer Zuckerman in the Wall Street Journal. It's going to be a matter of letting housing seek its own equilibrium, according to Zuckerman.



A HOME AS AN AMERICAN DREAM has to return to our American ideals NOT THE HOME AS AN AMERICAN PROFIT MAKING VENTURE. Let the GREEDY REMEMBER that WHAT GOES AROUND DOES INDEED COME AROUND!!!!!!!!!!



cheers, connie

9/18/10

KEEP THE AMERICAN DREAM OR A NIGHTMARE?

Hell o,

It is election time for Congress in a few short weeks so talk of tax cuts looms. Tax cuts that seem sympathetic to the current problems.

Unfortunately, included among the past tax cuts that Bush passed which ARE DUE TO EXPIRE this DECEMBER 31, UNLESS EXTENDED BY CONGRESS is a change in inheritance taxes taking it back to the EXTREME FORMER LEVELS. Now that may not seem to MATTER but if the estate has to pay over 50% inheritance tax, and in some states the heirs are taxed on the remains, it means that INDIVIDUAL hard work goes to the government not the family. The American Dream takes another hit!!!!!!!!!!!

The Government keeps spending Trillions in Washington but they also tend to make a million sound large when they want folks to agree with them.

ECONOMICALLY SPEAKING because of the NON-EXISTENT???????????INFLATION, a million even three million is now a possible figure for middle class folks to leave behind when all their estate is counted (unless, of course, house prices keep falling at the speed of constellations ). Homes in the 70's in a nice neighborhood (not fancy) cost around $30,000. REMEMBER PRICES ARE NOW AT LEAST 10x prices in the 70's.

Therefore: 10 x 100,000 ($100,000 was considered good high middle class inheritance income in the 70's) and now easily translates into a MILLION.

Inflation makes a million dollar MIDDLE CLASS ESTATE POSSIBLE because that $30,000. house is now worth $300,000. That is over 1/4 million dollars!!!!!!!!!!! Take a small step up in neighborhood where the prices once were $75,000. in the 70's and today the house is worth 10x that amount or $750,000. That is 3/4 of a million dollars!!!!!!!!!!! It doesn't take much more in the estate, which can include savings, insurance, home furnishings, cars, collections etc., to put the estate well over a million dollars or more.

What about folks earning over $250,000--(you mean $25,000. in the 70's??????) My, that's rich!!!!!!!!!!!! That's a high end middle class American not one of the "Wealthy class" that the President feels is at fault for all the problems of the poor and calls totally selfish!!!!!!!!!!!Just an ordinary citizen trying to make a life and a home for the family with a boatload of bills.

The inheritance bill is aimed at the middle class! When all is said and done, leaving children at least some part of earned income is a way to make the AMERICAN DREAM real. It is the way immigrants and the previously poor have made it possible for their children to live in nice neighbnorhoods with the expectation those children in turn will do the same.

GUESS WHAT???????????? If the reduction made in inheritance tax is not continued after December then FORGET making it possible for any future generations to enjoy the AMERICAN DREAM. More likely the AMERICAN NIGHTMARE. At present it focuses on estates of $3m but we know how that goes. It won't be long before inheritance will be a thing of the past. By the time the lawyers, the inheritance taxes (which will likely grow), local taxes and other costs ARE LEVIED, they'll be lucky not to have to pay the Government for the privilege of continuing to live in the home left them to them.

These kinds of taxers seem harmless BECAUSE the PRESS keeps BLATHERING about the WEALTHY and make such taxes seem of no concern to anyone but the wealthy. THINK AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!

SPEAKING OF THE FOURTH ESTATE, I am very disappointed in their total political bias to events. The Press had grown powerful in this country because it was predicated on bringing truth to the public and maintaining neutrality. JUST THE FACTS, MA'M, JUST THE FACTS!!!!

Television with its constant bias changed that. Instead of newspapers and magazines taking the opportunity to take the opposite stance, they caved and now offer THEIR OWN BIAS.

In times of great economic upheaval, it is unfortunate that folks cannot get the facts without the bias BUT THAT'S THE WAY IT IS, FOLKS. Proceed at your own risk.

VOTE IN NOVEMBER FOR A CONGRESS THAT WILL FOLLOW.......YOUR..........WISHES.

Those CONGRESSMEN are YOUR EMPLOYEES AND SO IS THE PRESIDENT. If we all decided to cut them off TOMORROW without paying a penny in TAXES, they'd be out of a job like so many in the rest of the nation. The power is with us!!!!!!!!!!!!

REMEMBER THAT when you vote.
CHEERS, CONNIE

9/11/10

NGOs-LOOSE AS A GOOSE

Hi,
A couple of weeks ago when we took a look at Hungarian George Soros and his wealthy input into American and International politics, we ran into some Soros' influenced NGOs (NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS)that are listed on the Web.

Speaking of "George", a small newspaper item announced that he'd given $100 million over a 10 year period to Human Rights Watch, an international human rights group. The money comes from Soros' Open Society Foundations. His Open Society Institute sponsors "DEATH IN AMERICA", and he helped fund the Oregon Death with Dignity Act which he hopes will transform the culture and experience of dying since he sponsors euthanasia. Mr. Soros, although Hungarian, considers himself RESPONSIBLE for all phases of an American's life. He obviously considers us irrational, irresponsible AND TOO UNSTABLE to account for our own actions or our influence on the world. Too bad! I wonder if he judges us on the Disneyland phenomenon?

Both of the organizations in which Soros is involved are NGOs that you can find explained on the Web. And if you get interested there are over 40,000 NGOs internationally and they can number in the millions in individual countries like India.

A non-governmental organization (NGO) is a legally constituted organization (according to the legalities of the founding countries' citizens) created by natural or certain legal persons that operates independently of any government and without government status. Funding may be by private individuals and partially by government but must exclude government officials from membership. Supposedly the NGO pursues some wider social aim and is not overtly political. It really has NO LEGAL DEFINITION and is LOOSE AS A GOOSE.

Unfortunately, this loose definition has led to recognition in Agenda 21 of the United Nations (never seen as political??????????) for a consulting relationship which LOOSELY SPEAKING MEANS United Nations one World CONTROL. There's the GOOSE!!!!!!!!!! NGOs have been called "THE GROWING POWER OF THE UNSELECTED FEW". Unfortunately, many NGOs appear to have moved from their own issues to a largely liberal POLITICAL agenda aimed at destroying United States sovereignty and free market capitalism.

Since NGOs create their own rules and regulations, they often use their organization to force political issues by the knowledgeable use of the MEDIA MACHINE. That title for the recent path of the media is a great one and I will pursue that in another post!!!!!!!!

There is a new website:

http://www.ngowatch.org

To provide operational information and funding sources of these sites that are using their influence in international affairs. " Some NGOs want to be players. They want to be regulators." Unfortunately, instead of Non Governmental agendas, these efforts are furthering a world political order based on global governance and a rule of international law that would end UNITED STATES sovereignty. A project that George Soros deems worthy and contributes his money to fund because he considers us UNSTABLE.

There are all sorts of NGO categories that began in the 1980s which would seem to lead to humanitarian efforts rather than political effort including charitable, service, participatory, and empowering.

The establishment of an NGO is done by the identification of need and gathering
a group of people of like minds and unity of purpose. These folks hire a qualified legal practitioner to register with a regional or central government depending on the scope of operations planned. NGOs are often divided by the World Bank based on clearly stated objectives or plans of action into Operational (community based, national or international HELP) or Advocacy (SPECIFIC CAUSE AWARENESS. IT ALL SEEMS REASONABLE, HARMLESS, AND HELPFUL!!!!!!!!!!! They are most certainly is in the great American tradition of FREEDOM.

BUT WHAT FINE MORAL OBJECTIVE can't be turned to IMMORAL use given the OPPORTUNITY??????????? And our enemies recognize that very well.

NGOs vary in their methods of operation and utilize lobbyists, instructors, active programs, investigators, documentation, legal assistants, public relations, fund raisers, and management.

A code of ethics was established in 2003 by THE WORLD ASSOCIATION OF NON-GOVERNMENTAL NGOs. It is LOOSELY FOLLOWED but once a large association is formed, the NGO becomes its OWN KIND OF GOVERNMENT that REQUIRES PAID staffs.

As an employer just one large NGO can employ over 5000 staff and have budgets in the hundreds of millions+ dollars. That Money must come from dues, donations, and if necessary government funding. This has become the case with the AARP (American Association of Retired Persons) whose annual budget in the late l990s was $540 million. The budget was too big to handle and AARP got assistance from the United States Government. The association because of the large government funding has become a political animal in the 2000s, losing the freedom of its original NGO.

The dependence on Government money for funding increases Government influence. One of my favorite FORMER donation projects, "Medecins Sans Frontiers" or known in the U.S. as DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS IS NOW NEAR 50% FUNDED by Government sources. It has increasingly lost its particular special and unique purpose of providing like-nationality doctors to foreign travelers and has become part of the army of doctors for poor countries. Too bad since there are many already dedicated to that sector and none to the sick traveler.

Government funding seems to always change the purpose originally intended by an NGO that formerly filled a specific need or humanitarian intervention. Some NGOs created for individual action groups continue to operate outside government like GREENPEACE because they do not accept funding from governments OR INTERGOVERNMENTAL organizations.

Okay, is there any monitoring or control????????? Well,the UN is interested in becoming the totally controlling agency. UH OH!!!!!!!!!!Isn't the United Nations all about One Worldism and isn't that what Mr. Soros is all about as well.

Some of the countries' governments who register NGOs require reporting, monitoring, and oversight. The information is given to the donors and not always available publicly. There are NGOs that specialize in watchdog activities and publish the details of specific NGOs, LIKE THE WEBSITE POSTED ABOVE.

So, what does all this activity means to us ECONOMICALLY?????? Well, in as much as YOU MAY BE SUPPORTING THROUGH TAXES an NGO that you don't want to support--that's called a TAX BURDEN!!!!!!!!!

I haven't found any statistics on how much our Federal Government spends on these private organizations but if the $540MILLION spent in the 1990s on JUST AARP is any indication, we can be assured THAT THE MONEY SPENT COULD BE BUDGETED to our present problems and do the taxpayers a lot more good.

There is a list on the WEB by Duke Libraries of NGOs in North America

http://library.duke.edu/research/subject/guides/ngo_guide/ngo_links/namerica.html

that provides a list that may STARTLE you: from the Lions Club and Rotary Club International to the American Civil Liberties Union and the Gay and Lesbian Alliance. It's a startling range of NGOs in just the American group.

DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR FEDERAL TAX DOLLARS ARE GOING?????????AND DO YOU APPROVE????
If not, maybe we need a more responsive and responsible accounting by Congressional members, who tend to slip many of these funds into budgets not designed for that purpose!!!!!!!!!!

Why is Medicare not fully funded or Social Security??????????Maybe these tax dollars are part of the reason!!!!!!!!!!Americans should have a choice ON what SPECIAL INTERESTS THEY ARE WILLING TO PAY or A CONGRESS THAT IS MORE RESPONSIBLE TO THE REAL NEEDS OF THE ELECTORATE!!!!!!!!

CHEERS, CONNIE

9/4/10

OH WHAT A WEB WE WEAVE WHEN FIRST WE PRACTICE TO DECEIVE

Hi,

A little this and that this week. Annoying elements of our present economic culture.

First, let me make clear that Tiger Woods earned his fame as well as his infamy and I do not begrudge either or the spoils of his riches. However, if I were a banker in these lean times, would I lend him $54.5 million on his property on Jupiter Island to pay his "ex" her share? Particularly if I considered the state of the economy, the loss of property values, Woods' loss of sponsors, and the state of Woods' recent golf playing and that newly divorced folks are not the best risk. A banker would have to think long and hard to find a plus benefit in all that. Evidently, one did!!!!!!!!!!! I just hope the property doesn't wind up on the tax default list and cost the rest of us.

Well, "they" say illegal immigrants are leaving the United States at a fast rate??????????Like there's somewhere else to go where the economy, politics, or safety is better? If so--what are we waiting for????????

On top of this, one of the newspaper's "erstwhile" journalists felt that he had to point out that the supposed loss of illegal immigrants counted as a large loss to social security. It seems with our present usual honesty and wisdom those illegals have ILLEGAL????????????social security numbers that they and their employers pay into and for which those ILLEGALS will never receive the promised??????compensation for the money the Government collects.

Now I see tons of things wrong with that whole premise. First: doesn't social security check the numbers they give out--you know: stolen, deceased, made up and so forth?????????; second: don't the employers check to make sure they are not paying out money unnecessarily. What kind of FAT pockets do we have here????; Third: if the government knows this is happening, wouldn't it occur to at least one bureaucrat that the statistical figures would be completely SCREWED, GLUED, AND MAYBE EVEN TATTOOED?????????AND THAT THIS WAS A DISHONEST approach????????????

I mean look at it this way. Maybe Social Security is NOT overextended and ready to go bankrupt!!!!!!!!! If there are so many ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS on the SOCIAL SECURITY rolls that don't have to be REIMBURSED with social security payments BUT ARE recorded as LEGITIMATE holders of SOCIAL SECURITY then we don't actually owe ALL that money WE THOUGHT HAD to be paid out!!!!!!!!!!If we don't have to PAY OUT ALL THAT MONEY then SOCIAL SECURITY MAY ACTUALLY BE SOLVENT!!!!!!!!!!

SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHAT "WHEN FIRST YOU PRACTICE TO DECEIVE"?????????? Your mother was right. It gets intolerably complicated.

A new twist on Socialist thinking about the economy. The FIRST LOOK program--what a SWELLIGENT--ELEGANT PROGRAM THIS IS!!!!!!!!! UNLESS YOU ARE A PRIVATE INVESTOR WHO MIGHT WANT TO INCREASE YOUR SAVINGS.

This program is designed to take the investment opportunities AWAY from the INDIVIDUAL (THAT ROTTEN SPECULATOR) and give local governments and community groups (I wonder if they mean Socialist groups) using NEIGHBORHOOD STABILIZATION MONEY (a synonym for Government money AS IN YOURS AND MINE Tax money) FIRST CRACK (what a ironic use of words) at buying bank-owned homes (THOSE DIRTY SPECULATORS).

Nearly $6 BILLION OF YOUR MONEY is NATIONALLY earmarked for the program. And an unprecedented agreement has been reached with our largest lenders. This according to the CRA (Community Redevelopment Agency) who admit that those PESKY INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS are getting in the way of the government being able to take over the housing. HORRORS!!!!!!!!!! How could we still believe we HAVE THAT FREEDOM??????????Didn't that other GOVERNMENT ESTEEMED NACA group bully that idea out of existence when they corralled people by telling them "WE LOVES YOU--WE HELPS YOU". (that's a line from an old play pointing up the idea of an enabling that "ain't").

This is a little off the Economic agenda although for fishermen or beach goers, it's right on! Remember when??????????we used to go to the beach and any dead fish was up for grabs for bait (AS LONG IT DIDN'T STINK?????) Well maybe you never used the expression "EITHER FISH OR CUT BAIT" but trust me it was freedom to be enjoyed.

NOT NOW. A poor sixty year old fisherman saw the BAIT OR FISH OF A LIFETIME on Florida's beach. A DEAD WHALE. And he preceded to CUT BAIT or a MEAL and got detained by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission for mutilating an endangered species.

IT WAS ENDANGERED ALL RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!! IT WAS DEAD AS A DOORNAIL but it seems he interfered with the Government Agencies' right to examine WHOLE ENDANGERED SPECIES. A partial WHALE SIMPLY WON'T DO. Give me a break Government officials, LIGHTEN UP!!!!!!!!!!EASE UP!!!!!!!!!!and try to see THE TREES INSTEAD OF THE FOREST. The man liked fish and saw a REALLY BIG DEAD FISH--LET HIM FEED ON IT.

Okay, last but not least and the economics of this are subtle but costly. The controversy over a Mosque BEING BUILT near the site of the Twin Towers in New York where mainly CHRISTIANS AND JEWS BUT MOSTLY EASTENERS were killed (very illegal in this country) by the ARABS (where such activity is welcomed and encouraged by the KORAN) has been unofficially rejected as a plan by two-thirds of NEW YORKERS. A less controversial site has been offered in lower Manhattan farther from Ground Zero. That sounds like a better plan but I believe I have come up with the best plan.

PUT THE MOSQUE IN NEW JERSEY and let the Arabs and the Mafia duke it out!!!!!!!!!! Think of the savings in Federal Court costs over the years?????????The Mafia has always claimed to be very pro-American and religious (except when it gets in the way of profit or vendetta) and the Arabs claim that they must purify the land of INFIDELS (except when it gets in the way of profits or vendettas) so I feel they have much common ground on which to co-exist (or not).

Cheers, Connie